Montpellier vs PSG Betting Tips & Match Preview – Ligue 1 Showdown

Introduction

Matchday 33 in the Ligue 1 calendar brings a lopsided affair as relegated Montpellier prepare to host league champions Paris Saint-Germain at Stade de la Mosson this Saturday. While the stakes are minimal for both sides — with Montpellier heading to Ligue 2 and PSG already crowned champions for the 2024/25 season — there’s still pride and performance on the line. For PSG, this game serves as a chance to rotate the squad after a tiring European midweek effort, while Montpellier hope to avoid another harsh beating by their long-time tormentors. Dive into our expert analysis as we break down the latest stats, injuries, and odds to deliver the best Montpellier vs PSG betting tips.

Team News & Key Insights

• Montpellier’s Form: The hosts are in a dismal run of form, failing to secure a single win in their last five matches, with four losses and one goalless draw.
• PSG’s Dominance: PSG have won 9 of their last 10 encounters against Montpellier, including a 6-0 thrashing earlier this season and a 6-2 away win last term.
• Key Injuries: Montpellier will be missing defenders Nikola Maksimovic and Christopher Jullien, both crucial losses in a fragile backline. PSG, meanwhile, may rest some key names due to midweek Champions League action, potentially giving minutes to squad players like William Pacho.
• Expected Lineups: Montpellier’s likely starters include Lecomte, Sainte-Luce, Mincarelli, and Mouanga, while PSG could feature Safonov, Hernandez, Neves, and Ramos among others.
• Historical Nightmare: Montpellier have conceded a staggering 12 goals in their last two matches against PSG and haven’t beaten them in over a decade.

Betting Odds & Predictions

There’s little surprise that PSG enter this clash as overwhelming favorites. Bookmakers have priced an away win at 1.23 (23/100), reflecting an 80% implied probability. A home upset stands at long odds of 11.50 (21/2), while a draw is available at 6.70 (57/10). The correct score prediction of PSG winning 3-1 aligns with current patterns — Luis Enrique’s men have repeatedly averaged over 3 goals per game in this fixture recently.

Additional betting markets suggest this could be another high-scoring encounter. Over 2.5 PSG goals is priced at 2.25 (5/4), with a 44.4% implied probability, indicating PSG’s potential to entertain again. Given Montpellier’s leaky defense and lack of form, the away side should dominate proceedings from kickoff to final whistle.

Expert Betting Tips

• PSG to Win & Over 2.5 Goals – 1.72: The Parisians have scored at least 3 goals in each of the last three H2H matches. Even with squad rotation, their attacking depth remains lethal.
• Correct Score: Montpellier 1-3 PSG – 9.00: This scoreline has occurred before and reflects Montpellier’s ability to sneak in a consolation goal while still being vastly outplayed.
• BTTS – Yes – 2.05: Montpellier may find some space if PSG rotate defenders, and the hosts have found the net in 3 of their last 5 home games.
• Over 3.5 Total Goals – 2.10: Six of the last seven fixtures between these two have featured four or more goals, suggesting an action-packed encounter.
• K. Mbaye to Score Anytime – 2.65: If given a start, Mbaye could capitalize on a porous Montpellier defense, especially if fellow forwards like Barcola provide service from wide.

Final Prediction & Verdict

Montpellier are simply out of their depth as they welcome the champs, and recent statistics do little to suggest anything other than another heavy defeat. While PSG might not line up with their full-strength squad after their triumph over Arsenal in Europe, the difference in class and confidence is still glaring. Montpellier have failed to score in four of their last five games and have allowed an average of 3.2 goals per match over that span—numbers that spell trouble.

Given PSG’s full control in head-to-heads, a 3-1 away win looks highly plausible. Montpellier might nick a goal through a set piece or moment of brilliance, but PSG’s firepower—even from a rotated lineup—should be more than enough to secure all three points. Our final verdict: back PSG to win comfortably, and if you’re chasing higher returns, Correct Score 1-3 offers great value this weekend.