Athletic Club vs Alaves Betting Tips & Match Preview – La Liga Basque Derby
Introduction
Saturday’s Basque derby at San Mames sees Athletic Club take on Alaves in a match filled with local passion, but recent history suggests this might be a low-scoring affair. Athletic come into the game trying to recover from a heavy 4-1 aggregate loss to Manchester United in the Europa League. On the other hand, Alaves are showing signs of resilience, picking up solid results under new coach Chacho Coudet. With both teams often involved in tight contests, fans and punters alike will be watching closely to see if fireworks erupt or if another dull draw plays out. Dive into our full preview for expert betting tips and match predictions.
Team News & Key Insights
- Athletic Club have drawn 47% of their league matches in 2025, indicating a high frequency of shared points.
- The home team are expected to be without Alex Berenguer and Andoni Gorosabel due to suspension.
- Key attackers Oihan Sancet, Inaki Williams and Nico Williams are all fitness doubts, potentially weakening Athletic’s frontline.
- Alaves have lost just once away since hiring Chacho Coudet, showing strong defensive resolve on the road.
- Alaves are only missing Abdel Abqar through injury and are expected to maintain their lineup after a solid 0-0 draw with Atletico Madrid.
- Four of Alaves’ last five matches have finished with under 1.5 goals, highlighting their recent trend of low-scoring games.
- Head-to-head, all of the past eight meetings between these sides have seen two or fewer total goals.
- Alaves haven’t scored in any of their previous five competitive visits to San Mames.
- Kike Garcia is the player to watch for Alaves, having scored 12 goals in 32 appearances this season, and leads all potential players in the match with 3.2 aerial duels won per game.
Betting Odds & Predictions
Despite their recent European setback, Athletic Club are priced as the favourites for this clash. The pre-match odds suggest a 52.4% chance of a home victory at 1.91. A draw stands at 3.25 (30.8%), while an Alaves away win is priced at 4.50 (22.2%).
Given the combination of Athletic’s attacking absences and Alaves’ solid defensive form, it’s no surprise that the prediction is for a 0-0 correct score. This forecast aligns with recent head-to-head records and the low scoring nature of both teams’ recent fixtures. With each of the last eight meetings producing two goals or fewer, punters should approach this match with expectations of a slow-paced, tactical battle.
Expert Betting Tips
- Correct Score 0-0 – Reflects both teams’ tendency toward low-scoring draws. Tip based on prediction
- Under 1.5 Total Goals – Four of Alaves’ last five games have seen one goal or fewer. Justified by recent trend
- Draw – Athletic have drawn 47% of league games in 2025, and both teams are evenly matched. Odds: 3.25
- Alaves Clean Sheet – Athletic may miss key attackers, increasing the chance Alaves keep things tight. Based on team news and form
- Both Teams to Score – No – Alaves haven’t scored in their last five visits to San Mames. H2H stat supports this
Final Prediction & Verdict
This Basque derby presents itself as a battle of attrition rather than flair. Athletic Club’s attacking issues might seriously hinder their ability to break through Alaves’ disciplined defense. Without star forwards potentially available, goals could be in short supply for Los Leones. Meanwhile, Alaves’ recent away form shows they’ve learned to manage difficult games well, especially under new leadership from Chacho Coudet.
Historically, this fixture rarely explodes into action, and the odds point to a very even matchup. Considering the trend of low-scoring clashes, a tight draw is the most likely outcome here. The safest and most backed prediction is a 0-0 final score, reflective of both teams’ cautious approaches and struggles in front of goal. If you’re looking for value and form-based certainty, betting on a low-scoring affair offers excellent returns.
