AC Milan vs Bologna Betting Tips & Match Preview – Serie A Clash for European Spots

Introduction

Friday night in Serie A delivers a crucial clash as AC Milan host Bologna on 9 May in what could be a decisive fixture for European qualification. The Rossoneri are back in form and clinging to faint hopes of a top-six finish, while Bologna sit in seventh, just a point off fourth place and Champions League qualification. Stakes are high, tension is rising, and both teams will be desperate for the three points. Read on for our expert betting tips and predictions for this pivotal Serie A showdown.

Team News & Key Insights

• AC Milan have scored 2+ goals in three of their last five matches against Bologna.
• Bologna have won just once in their last five Serie A outings.
• Both teams have scored in three of the last four meetings between these sides.
• Rafael Leao is suspended for Milan due to yellow card accumulation.
• Tammy Abraham returns to the squad after missing the previous game with injury.
• Bologna’s Dan Ndoye, who scored the winner in the reverse fixture, is out due to a thigh injury.
• Emil Holm is also unavailable for Bologna.
• AC Milan’s last five: W-W-W-L-W – showing strong form.
• Bologna’s last five: D-D-W-W-L – inconsistent with recent away struggles.
• Head-to-head dominance: Milan have lost only once in their last 18 matches against Bologna.
• Bologna haven’t won at San Siro against Milan since January 2016.

Betting Odds & Predictions

Bookmakers have made AC Milan the slight favourites, pricing them at 2.45 (29/20) with an implied win probability of 40.8%. Bologna come in close behind at 2.75 (7/4), suggesting a 36.4% chance, while the draw is offered at 3.30 (23/10), or 30.3% probability.

Our prediction leans towards a narrow home win, with a suggested correct score of AC Milan 2-1 Bologna. Milan’s resurgence in form and Bologna’s dip—especially away from home where they haven’t scored in the last two outings—are key considerations. However, history and injuries further tilt the balance towards the hosts.

Expert Betting Tips

• AC Milan to Win – 2.45: Milan have won three of their last four games, while Bologna are winless in two, lacking their recent match-winner.
• Both Teams to Score – 1.83: BTTS has landed in three of the last four H2H meetings.
• Over 2.5 Goals – 1.85: With Milan scoring 2+ in three of their last five versus Bologna, goals are expected.
• Correct Score 2-1 Milan – 9.00: The predicted scoreline reflects Milan’s slight edge and home advantage.
• Tammy Abraham to Score Anytime: Though goal-shy this season, with Leao out, Abraham could step up.

Final Prediction & Verdict

This Serie A showdown is teed up to be an intense battle with serious European implications. AC Milan’s recent form suggests they’ve found their rhythm at a pivotal moment, winning three straight matches and demonstrating attacking threat, even without Rafael Leao. With Tammy Abraham returning, their offense should still pose danger. Bologna, meanwhile, have taken just one point from their last two games and look vulnerable on the road, particularly with Dan Ndoye sidelined.

Considering Milan’s historical dominance in this fixture, their current momentum, and Bologna’s recent struggles, a home win looks the most likely outcome. Bologna haven’t tasted victory at San Siro in nearly a decade, and if Milan are to keep their slim top-six hopes alive, now is the time to deliver. Take AC Milan to edge this one, potentially by a 2-1 scoreline.